Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Claude Patrick
Brian Ebersole
16%
84%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
32
Age
Δ 0y
31
15-2
Career record
Δ 15 pp
52-18-1
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Patrick: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Ebersole: 23 sig / 2 TD
Claude Patrick
Brian Ebersole
12
Sig strikes landed
18
31
Sig strikes attempted
40
43
Total strikes landed
39
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.4
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
204s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Claude Patrick
"The Prince"
15-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
W2
Brian Ebersole
"Bad Boy"
52-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—