🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Lyoto Machida
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
·Scotiabank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Lyoto Machida
93%
7%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 10"
74"
24
Age
Δ 9y
34
29-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
25-8
W5
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Jones: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Machida: 13 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Lyoto Machida
45
Sig strikes landed
16
67
Sig strikes attempted
34
63
Total strikes landed
26
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
288s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
60%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
25-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—