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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Dustin Pague vs John Albert

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Dustin Pague
John Albert
61% 39%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
24
Age
Δ 1y
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pague: 3 sig / 0 TD · Albert: 21 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Pague
John Albert
39
Sig strikes landed
33
80
Sig strikes attempted
70
53
Total strikes landed
42
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
142s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Dustin Pague

"The Disciple"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner

John Albert

"Prince"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25