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TJ Dillashaw vs John Dodson

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
TJ Dillashaw
John Dodson
67% 33%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dillashaw: 2 sig / 0 TD · Dodson: 7 sig / 0 TD
TJ Dillashaw
John Dodson
39
Sig strikes landed
35
84
Sig strikes attempted
73
55
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
138s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

TJ Dillashaw

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

John Dodson

"The Magician"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27