Prelims1
Bantamweight
Michael McDonald vs Alex Soto
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael McDonald
Alex Soto
81%
19%
Why
21
Age
Δ 7y
28
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
McDonald: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Soto: 6 sig / 0 TD
Michael McDonald
Alex Soto
44
Sig strikes landed
29
87
Sig strikes attempted
71
62
Total strikes landed
40
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
181s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Michael McDonald
"Mayday"
18-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
Alex Soto
"Extremo"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28