Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Bader vs Jason Brilz
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Bader
Jason Brilz
74%
26%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 8y
36
23-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
22-7-1
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Bader: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Brilz: 1 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Bader
Jason Brilz
27
Sig strikes landed
21
72
Sig strikes attempted
49
51
Total strikes landed
42
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
150s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
L
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
L2
Jason Brilz
"Hitman"
22-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—