Prelims2
Middleweight
Tom Lawlor vs Chris Weidman
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tom Lawlor
Chris Weidman
38%
62%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
11-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
17-8
W1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lawlor: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Weidman: 3 sig / 1 TD
Tom Lawlor
Chris Weidman
28
Sig strikes landed
35
61
Sig strikes attempted
77
41
Total strikes landed
61
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
73s
Control time
226s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tom Lawlor
"Filthy"
11-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W2
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
17-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—