Prelims2
Bantamweight
Miguel Torres vs Nick Pace
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Miguel Torres
Nick Pace
93%
7%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 8"
68"
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
44-10
Career record
Δ 15 pp
8-4
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Torres: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Pace: 31 sig / 1 TD
Miguel Torres
Nick Pace
45
Sig strikes landed
31
95
Sig strikes attempted
85
76
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
2.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
172s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Miguel Torres
44-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
L1
Nick Pace
8-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—