Prelims2
Welterweight
Matt Brown vs Seth Baczynski
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Seth Baczynski
49%
51%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
27-19
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-14
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Brown: 19 sig / 1 TD ·
Baczynski: 17 sig / 1 TD
Matt Brown
Seth Baczynski
30
Sig strikes landed
27
55
Sig strikes attempted
65
45
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
73s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
27-19
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W1
Seth Baczynski
"The Polish Pistola"
21-14
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—