Prelims2
Lightweight
Gleison Tibau vs Rafael Dos Anjos
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gleison Tibau
Rafael Dos Anjos
67%
33%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
34-14
Career record
Δ 5 pp
33-17
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Tibau: 56 sig / 2 TD ·
Dos Anjos: 25 sig / 0 TD
Gleison Tibau
Rafael Dos Anjos
24
Sig strikes landed
26
77
Sig strikes attempted
68
39
Total strikes landed
36
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
73s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Gleison Tibau
34-14
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
W1
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—