Prelims2
Lightweight
Danny Castillo vs Shamar Bailey
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Danny Castillo
Shamar Bailey
52%
48%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
17-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
16-12
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Castillo: 22 sig / 3 TD ·
Bailey: 3 sig / 0 TD
Danny Castillo
Shamar Bailey
38
Sig strikes landed
34
72
Sig strikes attempted
89
61
Total strikes landed
64
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.1
3.5
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
149s
Control time
204s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
L1
Shamar Bailey
16-12
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—