Main
Light Heavyweight
Stephan Bonnar vs Kyle Kingsbury
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Stephan Bonnar
Kyle Kingsbury
55%
45%
Why
79"
Reach
79"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
16-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
12-6
W2
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bonnar: 36 sig / 4 TD ·
Kingsbury: 31 sig / 0 TD
Stephan Bonnar
Kyle Kingsbury
47
Sig strikes landed
48
122
Sig strikes attempted
113
68
Total strikes landed
62
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
186s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Stephan Bonnar
"The American Psycho"
16-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W3
Kyle Kingsbury
"Kingsbu"
12-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—