Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
TJ Cook
Trevor Smith
91%
9%
Why
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
14-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
16-10
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Cook: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Smith: 11 sig / 0 TD
TJ Cook
Trevor Smith
42
Sig strikes landed
36
99
Sig strikes attempted
102
50
Total strikes landed
40
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
154s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
TJ Cook
14-5
Career record
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 17
—
Blue corner
W1
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
16-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 16
—