Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Nate James
92%
8%
Why
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
24-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
15-8-1
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brunson: 40 sig / 5 TD ·
James: 20 sig / 0 TD
Derek Brunson
Nate James
43
Sig strikes landed
34
113
Sig strikes attempted
101
51
Total strikes landed
40
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
99s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Derek Brunson
"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henders…
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 16
—
Blue corner
W1
Nate James
15-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 18
—