Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Adlan Amagov
Anthony Smith
47%
53%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
25
Age
Δ 2y
23
15-2-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
39-22
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Amagov: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Smith: 4 sig / 0 TD
Adlan Amagov
Anthony Smith
30
Sig strikes landed
38
74
Sig strikes attempted
82
48
Total strikes landed
49
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
142s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Adlan Amagov
"Borz"
15-2-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 17
—
Blue corner
W1
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
39-22
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 17
—