Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ronda Rousey
Julia Budd
87%
13%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
25
Age
Δ 4y
28
13-2
Career record
Δ 2 pp
11-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rousey: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Budd: 2 sig / 0 TD
Ronda Rousey
Julia Budd
53
Sig strikes landed
36
150
Sig strikes attempted
74
68
Total strikes landed
56
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
206s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ronda Rousey
"Rowdy"
13-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 18
—
Blue corner
W1
Julia Budd
11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
Strikeforce Challengers 16
—
L
Strikeforce Challengers 13
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 11
—