Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Maguire
Justin Edwards
79%
21%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 0y
29
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maguire: 27 sig / 6 TD ·
Edwards: 28 sig / 0 TD
John Maguire
Justin Edwards
38
Sig strikes landed
36
78
Sig strikes attempted
78
57
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
141s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
John Maguire
"The One"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
Blue corner
W1
Justin Edwards
"Fast Eddy"
10-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
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L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
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