Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Terry Etim
Edward Faaloloto
87%
13%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
26
Age
Δ 2y
27
16-6
Career record
Δ 48 pp
2-6
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Etim: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Faaloloto: 0 sig / 0 TD
Terry Etim
Edward Faaloloto
33
Sig strikes landed
26
66
Sig strikes attempted
59
48
Total strikes landed
36
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
202s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Terry Etim
16-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
L1
Edward Faaloloto
2-6
Career record
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—