Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rob Broughton
Philip De Fries
57%
43%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
79"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Broughton: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
De Fries: 14 sig / 3 TD
Rob Broughton
Philip De Fries
38
Sig strikes landed
38
71
Sig strikes attempted
78
53
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
137s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rob Broughton
"The Bear"
16-8-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
Blue corner
Philip De Fries
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26