Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cyrille Diabate
Anthony Perosh
73%
27%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 6"
75"
38
Age
Δ 1y
39
20-10-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-10
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Diabate: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Perosh: 17 sig / 2 TD
Cyrille Diabate
Anthony Perosh
39
Sig strikes landed
24
74
Sig strikes attempted
54
52
Total strikes landed
33
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
-0.6
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
43s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cyrille Diabate
"The Snake"
20-10-1
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W1
Anthony Perosh
"The Hippo"
16-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—