Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thiago Alves
Papy Abedi
70%
30%
Why
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Alves: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Abedi: 14 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Alves
Papy Abedi
44
Sig strikes landed
39
105
Sig strikes attempted
91
64
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
152s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
Papy Abedi
"Makambo"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33