Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Pickett
Renan Barao
17%
83%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
33
Age
Δ 8y
25
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pickett: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Barao: 37 sig / 0 TD
Brad Pickett
Renan Barao
29
Sig strikes landed
45
71
Sig strikes attempted
91
46
Total strikes landed
69
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
73s
Control time
238s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
W1
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
35-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
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