Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Leben
Mark Munoz
70%
30%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
31
Age
Δ 2y
34
23-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
15-6
W1
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Leben: 12 sig / 2 TD ·
Munoz: 39 sig / 5 TD
Chris Leben
Mark Munoz
32
Sig strikes landed
27
68
Sig strikes attempted
63
45
Total strikes landed
42
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
113s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Leben
"The Crippler"
23-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W3
Mark Munoz
"The Filipino Wrecking Machine"
15-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—