Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mike Pierce
Paul Bradley
51%
49%
Why
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
17-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-9
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pierce: 75 sig / 0 TD ·
Bradley: 63 sig / 0 TD
Mike Pierce
Paul Bradley
33
Sig strikes landed
22
77
Sig strikes attempted
59
64
Total strikes landed
45
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.6
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
217s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Pierce
17-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Paul Bradley
"The Gentleman"
23-9
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—