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Alex Caceres vs Cole Escovedo

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos ·Honda Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Cole Escovedo
61% 39%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
23
Age
Δ 7y
30
21-16
Career record
Δ 6 pp
17-10
L2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Caceres: 102 sig / 0 TD · Escovedo: 24 sig / 2 TD
Alex Caceres
Cole Escovedo
44
Sig strikes landed
22
63
Sig strikes attempted
38
50
Total strikes landed
39
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
110s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
35%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Alex Caceres

"Bruce Leeroy"
21-16 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
L2

Cole Escovedo

"Apache Kid"
17-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—