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Aaron Rosa vs Matt Lucas

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos ·Honda Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Aaron Rosa
Matt Lucas
86% 14%
Why
28
Age
Δ 9y
38
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Rosa: 59 sig / 0 TD · Lucas: 19 sig / 1 TD
Aaron Rosa
Matt Lucas
57
Sig strikes landed
55
154
Sig strikes attempted
129
71
Total strikes landed
81
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Aaron Rosa

18-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
Blue corner

Matt Lucas

"Luke Duke"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
38