Prelims1
Featherweight
Mackens Semerzier vs Robert Peralta
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
·Honda Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mackens Semerzier
Robert Peralta
36%
64%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
9-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-8
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Semerzier: 50 sig / 1 TD ·
Peralta: 39 sig / 0 TD
Mackens Semerzier
Robert Peralta
28
Sig strikes landed
21
77
Sig strikes attempted
57
44
Total strikes landed
35
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.3
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
282s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mackens Semerzier
"Da Menace"
9-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
W1
Robert Peralta
"Problems"
19-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
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