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Prelims1 Featherweight

Cub Swanson vs Ricardo Lamas

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos ·Honda Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Ricardo Lamas
69% 31%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Swanson: 17 sig / 1 TD · Lamas: 9 sig / 2 TD
Cub Swanson
Ricardo Lamas
24
Sig strikes landed
27
57
Sig strikes attempted
68
37
Total strikes landed
42
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
85s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Cub Swanson

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
W1

Ricardo Lamas

"The Bully"
21-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
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