Prelims1
Featherweight
Dustin Poirier vs Pablo Garza
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
·Honda Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Pablo Garza
88%
12%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
23
Age
Δ 5y
28
31-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
13-4
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Poirier: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Garza: 14 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Pablo Garza
27
Sig strikes landed
32
52
Sig strikes attempted
78
48
Total strikes landed
50
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
151s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
Blue corner
W2
Pablo Garza
"The Scarecrow"
13-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—