Prelims1
Lightweight
Clay Guida vs Benson Henderson
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
·Honda Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Benson Henderson
48%
52%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
39-22
Career record
Δ 14 pp
25-7
W4
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Guida: 11 sig / 2 TD ·
Henderson: 40 sig / 2 TD
Clay Guida
Benson Henderson
28
Sig strikes landed
35
90
Sig strikes attempted
90
52
Total strikes landed
67
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
8.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
195s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
39-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W2
Benson Henderson
"Smooth"
25-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—