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🏆 Title fight Main Heavyweight

Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos Santos

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos ·Honda Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Cain Velasquez
Junior Dos Santos
59% 41%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
29
Age
Δ 2y
28
15-3
Career record
Δ 12 pp
22-9
W2
Current streak
W4
2
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Velasquez: 7 sig / 0 TD · Dos Santos: 8 sig / 0 TD
Cain Velasquez
Junior Dos Santos
46
Sig strikes landed
48
102
Sig strikes attempted
123
58
Total strikes landed
59
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.6
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
98s
Control time
29s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Cain Velasquez

15-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W4

Junior Dos Santos

"Cigano"
22-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
W UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—