Prelims1
Lightweight
Dennis Siver vs Donald Cerrone
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dennis Siver
Donald Cerrone
32%
68%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
24-11
Career record
Δ 0 pp
37-17
W4
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Siver: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Cerrone: 9 sig / 0 TD
Dennis Siver
Donald Cerrone
47
Sig strikes landed
60
128
Sig strikes attempted
142
56
Total strikes landed
64
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
101s
Control time
25s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Dennis Siver
24-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
W3
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—