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Hatsu Hioki vs George Roop

UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz ·Mandalay Bay Events Center

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Hatsu Hioki
George Roop
90% 10%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Hioki: 24 sig / 2 TD · Roop: 35 sig / 2 TD
Hatsu Hioki
George Roop
43
Sig strikes landed
43
92
Sig strikes attempted
87
58
Total strikes landed
65
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
121s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Hatsu Hioki

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
W1

George Roop

16-13-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
L UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …