Back to UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
Prelims2 Light Heavyweight

Brandon Vera vs Eliot Marshall

UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz ·Mandalay Bay Events Center

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Brandon Vera
Eliot Marshall
55% 45%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
15-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
10-5
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vera: 33 sig / 1 TD · Marshall: 21 sig / 1 TD
Brandon Vera
Eliot Marshall
38
Sig strikes landed
23
53
Sig strikes attempted
61
57
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.50
103s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Brandon Vera

"The Truth"
15-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
Blue corner
L2

Eliot Marshall

"Fire"
10-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
L UFC Live: Vera vs Jones