Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Scott Jorgensen
Jeff Curran
30%
70%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jorgensen: 42 sig / 5 TD ·
Curran: 41 sig / 0 TD
Scott Jorgensen
Jeff Curran
25
Sig strikes landed
28
56
Sig strikes attempted
58
39
Total strikes landed
42
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
37%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Scott Jorgensen
"Young Guns"
16-12
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
Jeff Curran
"Big Frog"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34