Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mirko Filipovic
Roy Nelson
85%
15%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
37
Age
Δ 2y
35
35-12-2
Career record
Δ 12 pp
22-15
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Filipovic: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 32 sig / 2 TD
Mirko Filipovic
Roy Nelson
31
Sig strikes landed
28
60
Sig strikes attempted
59
50
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
145s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Mirko Filipovic
"Cro Cop"
35-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
L2
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22-15
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—