Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cheick Kongo
Matt Mitrione
75%
25%
Why
82"
Reach
82"
36
Age
Δ 3y
33
28-10-2
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-5
W1
Current streak
W4
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kongo: 44 sig / 2 TD ·
Mitrione: 21 sig / 0 TD
Cheick Kongo
Matt Mitrione
33
Sig strikes landed
30
73
Sig strikes attempted
54
47
Total strikes landed
42
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
110s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cheick Kongo
28-10-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 2-0
Last 3
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
D
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W4
Matt Mitrione
13-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
82"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—