Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
BJ Penn
Nick Diaz
19%
81%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
D1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Penn: 88 sig / 1 TD ·
Diaz: 178 sig / 0 TD
BJ Penn
Nick Diaz
35
Sig strikes landed
55
83
Sig strikes attempted
112
49
Total strikes landed
67
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
76s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16-14-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 4
D
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
Nick Diaz
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28