Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
King Green
Charon Spain
98%
2%
Why
25
Age
Δ 2y
24
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
King Green
Charon Spain
58
Sig strikes landed
48
131
Sig strikes attempted
113
73
Total strikes landed
54
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.60
144s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
King Green
35-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henders…
—
Blue corner
Charon Spain
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
24