Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Ray
Chris Spang
94%
6%
Why
27
Age
Δ 3y
24
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Joe Ray
Chris Spang
45
Sig strikes landed
44
102
Sig strikes attempted
104
88
Total strikes landed
54
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
260s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joe Ray
13-1
Career record
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
—
W
Strikeforce - Miami
—
Blue corner
Chris Spang
"The Kiss"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24