Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Brian Melancon
Felipe Portela
52%
48%
Why
29
Age
Δ 6y
24
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brian Melancon
Felipe Portela
43
Sig strikes landed
49
101
Sig strikes attempted
109
56
Total strikes landed
73
1.0
Takedowns landed
4.0
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
126s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brian Melancon
7-4
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
—
Blue corner
Felipe Portela
"Balboa"
0-0
Career record
Age
24