Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Neer
Keith Wisniewski
74%
26%
Why
28
Age
Δ 1y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Neer: 93 sig / 0 TD ·
Wisniewski: 41 sig / 0 TD
Josh Neer
Keith Wisniewski
36
Sig strikes landed
35
76
Sig strikes attempted
82
49
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
133s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh Neer
"The Dentist"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Keith Wisniewski
"The Polish Connection"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30