Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Walel Watson
Joseph Sandoval
62%
38%
Why
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Watson: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Sandoval: 0 sig / 0 TD
Walel Watson
Joseph Sandoval
37
Sig strikes landed
33
75
Sig strikes attempted
65
52
Total strikes landed
45
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
151s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Walel Watson
"The Gazelle"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Joseph Sandoval
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25