Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shane Roller
TJ Grant
24%
76%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
32
Age
Δ 5y
28
11-8
Career record
Δ 20 pp
21-6
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Roller: 10 sig / 1 TD ·
Grant: 24 sig / 2 TD
Shane Roller
TJ Grant
23
Sig strikes landed
34
65
Sig strikes attempted
68
41
Total strikes landed
56
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
98s
Control time
197s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Shane Roller
11-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
L1
TJ Grant
21-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—