Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yves Edwards
Rafaello Oliveira
75%
25%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
42-23-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-9
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Edwards: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 22 sig / 0 TD
Yves Edwards
Rafaello Oliveira
37
Sig strikes landed
26
82
Sig strikes attempted
75
56
Total strikes landed
45
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.7
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
138s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Yves Edwards
42-23-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
Blue corner
L2
Rafaello Oliveira
"Tractor"
17-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—