Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Paul Sass
40%
60%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
25
Age
Δ 2y
23
26-20
Career record
Δ 32 pp
15-2
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Johnson: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Sass: 2 sig / 0 TD
Michael Johnson
Paul Sass
22
Sig strikes landed
30
59
Sig strikes attempted
66
34
Total strikes landed
45
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
64s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
26-20
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
W1
Paul Sass
15-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—