Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Johnson
Charlie Brenneman
82%
18%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 8"
70"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
23-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
20-8
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Johnson: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Brenneman: 1 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Johnson
Charlie Brenneman
14
Sig strikes landed
10
35
Sig strikes attempted
26
39
Total strikes landed
25
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.0
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
125s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Anthony Johnson
"Rumble"
23-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
W2
Charlie Brenneman
"The Spaniard"
20-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—