Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pat Barry
Stefan Struve
10%
90%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 10"
84"
32
Age
Δ 9y
24
8-8
Career record
Δ 20 pp
33-14
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Barry: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Struve: 31 sig / 0 TD
Pat Barry
Stefan Struve
15
Sig strikes landed
33
27
Sig strikes attempted
76
20
Total strikes landed
46
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
79s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
3%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
71%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Pat Barry
"HD"
8-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
L1
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
33-14
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—