🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Dominick Cruz vs Demetrious Johnson
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
·Capital One Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Dominick Cruz
Demetrious Johnson
50%
50%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
25-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
28-3-1
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Cruz: 60 sig / 10 TD ·
Johnson: 63 sig / 1 TD
Dominick Cruz
Demetrious Johnson
41
Sig strikes landed
46
133
Sig strikes attempted
126
66
Total strikes landed
75
1.1
Takedowns landed
3.3
3.4
Takedowns attempted
8.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
87s
Control time
226s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dominick Cruz
"The Dominator"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
Blue corner
W2
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
28-3-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—