Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kazushi Sakuraba
Yan Cabral
33%
67%
Why
42
Age
Δ 14y
28
L3
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Sakuraba: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Cabral: 32 sig / 3 TD
Kazushi Sakuraba
Yan Cabral
43
Sig strikes landed
38
80
Sig strikes attempted
65
51
Total strikes landed
52
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
133s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Kazushi Sakuraba
"The Gracie Hunter"
26-18-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
Dynamite!! 2010
—
L
DREAM 16
—
L
DREAM 14
—
Blue corner
Yan Cabral
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28